The forthcoming presidential elections bring a great risk of violence, due to the unexpectedly close contest that is now anticipated between the candidates, said the International Crisis Group in its latest briefing.

“The opposition’s attempt to reopen democratic space also brings with it risks of violence and instability” says Alan Keenan, the organisation’s senior analyst on Sri Lanka.

“The tighter the race, the more violent it threatens to be.”

The report warns that extra-constitutional measures, including the use of the military, under the direct control of the president and his brother, Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, are possible if Sirisena’s challenge to President Rajapaksa looks likely to be successful.

The ICG in the report highlights the absence of Tamil rights issues and power sharing from the opposition platform and says that it is uncertain whether Tamils will be motivated to vote for the “avowedly Sinhala-Buddhist” candidate, Maithripala Sirisena.

Core questions around national identity, including devolution, accountability and the equal status of Tamils and Muslims will remain contentious whichever candidate wins the election, the report says.

According to the ICG, the Tamil National Alliance, is expected to back Sirisena, although it will not formally support him.

The candidate’s endorsement by the JHU, which holds “deeply Sinhala and Buddhist nationalist positions”, could “dampen Tamil and Muslim enthusiasm for Sirisena” the report further states.

“The TNA – or any moderate Tamil grouping – will find it difficult to negotiate with any government that includes, or is seen to be beholden to, the JHU. Even without the JHU involved, the TNA will likely struggle to gain support within parliament for increased powers to the north and east. Tamils are likely to be deeply disappointed if the constitution is changed to remove the executive presidency and restore democratic checks and balances without any moves to address their decades-long grievances," the report says.

“Tamil and right activists are also likely to be disappointed by how any initial post-Rajapaksa government addresses the divisive legacy of the civil war. Sirisena and other opposition leaders have publicly declared that they will protect President Rajapaksa, his family and any military leaders or soldiers from being tried by any international bodies. Likewise, many expect the common opposition to offer military leaders private guarantees that they will be treated gently should it come to power.”

See full report here.

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