With both of Tamil Nadu’s main political parties squared off for the May 8 polls, both seemed evenly matched this week. The DMK and AIADMK have both released their manifestoes and their lists of the candidates. Both the leaders Mr. M. Karunanidhi of the DMK and his arch-rival, Ms. J. Jayalalitha will commence campaigning this week, as will Mr. Vaiko (Y. Gopalasamy) of the MDMK, who switched from the DMK coalition to AIDMK’s recently.



In the past, events closer to the polls sway voters rather than the past performance of parties in government. During the last elections, Ms. Jayalalitha converted the rejection of her nomination papers which she filed for Andipatti and other two Assembly seats into a main election issue and voters responded. This year, it remains to seen which issue would dominate what promises to be a hard-fought battle.



The DMK manifesto is promising rice at Rs. 2/- per kilo and a colour television to all households. A wild idea, but the party may be trying to repeat their mentor Mr. CN Annadurai’s first election promise during 1950s. How far voters would react positively is doubtful given the staggering funds obviously required for such a scheme.



The DMK front has got specific advantages, like the support of the Congress party and the solid vote bank of the PMK solid vote bank in certain districts and the support of the Communists in others.



While it has no frontline leaders with charismatic appeal, amongst leaders, many feel there is no match for the DMK supreme, Mr. Karunanidhi. But how much his health would permit active and aggressive field work is a question.



Congress President Sonia is likely to campaign but her time will be limited as she has to canvas in other states also going to polls, especially Kerala and Assam, where Congress is a ruling party. But with Kerala also going to the polls and completing the process before Tamil Nadu, the alliance hopes to benefit from the visits of Ms.Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi.



From the AIADMK perspective, newly allied MDMK Chief, Vaiko would be touring the length and breadth of the state and is another fiery orator. Ms. Jayalalitha is also a known crowd puller and both are expected to tour throughout the state, enthusing party workers.



And it also appears that Ms. Jayalalitha is pinning her hopes on the minority votes which went solidly to DMK front during the Loksabha Elections. At that time BJP was with her and many of her measures, such as the Anti-Conversion Act, angered the minorities and they deserted the AIDMK. But by taking a calculated risk in isolating BJP she has endeared herself to the minorities and even a 50% shift of votes to her Front would be decisive factor in the next ruling party.



She has also called off a series of unpopular reforms, which led to her party’s defeat in parliamentary elections.



Obviously the level of discontentment that a ruling party would normally face during election time – the anti-incumbency vote- is missing this time, to the AIADMK’s advantage – and relief. Questions about the performance of Ministers from Tamil Nadu at the Central government, better management of tsunami and the after effects, the decision to announce cash component as aid for flood affected people throughout flood affected areas, distribution of free cycles to school going girls, announcement of so many welfare schemes and restoring the benefits which was withdrawn by her to state government employees would endeared Ms. Jayalaitha to the electorate.



Both Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi are running for the office of chief minister. Whilst their strategies are not clear, both sides have reasons to think they will win the elections.



The DMK has the advantage of big parties in its Democratic Progressive Alliance. Its former enemy - the Congress party will contest in 48 constituencies on its behalf. The next biggest player on its side, the PMK of Ramadoss got 31 seats - four more than what it secured as an ally of Jayalalithaa in the last election.



Its other allies - the CPI-M will contest in 13 constituencies and the CPI in 10. A faction of the IUML will seek votes in three areas on the symbol of the DMK’s Rising Sun. Former Minister RM Veerapan is expected to secure one seat for his MGR Kazhagam and Moovendar Munnetra Kazhagam is also likely to get one seat.



But speculation over leadership issues could damage the unity within the DMK. Tamil Nadu watchers say the DMK’s ageing leader Karunanidhi may prefer his less popular son M Stalin to be chief minister in the event of victory in the polls but there is no official word on the matter.



Such a leadership scenario, observers indicate, will dip its popularity with the voters as well as with party workers.



Jayalalithaa’s alliance - the Democratic People’s Front – includes, apart from MDMK, the DPI contesting in nine constituencies, a breakaway faction of the IUML with one seat, Forward Bloc - Santhanam group - one seat, INL - one seat and the splinter group of the INTUC with two seats.



The only question affecting all parties is election fatigue. Officials and voters complain the State has been going into “election mode” too often, alternating between Parliamentary and Assembly elections.



In 1998, 1999 and 2004, there were Lok Sabha elections. In 1996 and 2001, Assembly elections were held. People have got inured to election fever and rhetoric which appear every two years.



As widely expected, the BJP, which has become hard to ally with in this election, is expected fight alone and field candidates in more than 170 seats. Actor Vijayakant’s new party is also testing the water alone. In a battle which is becoming highly personalised and polarised it remains to be seen how these parties will do. Vijayakant is attracting very good crowds in all areas where he has toured but his party cadre are not experienced to convert the popularity of their leader into votes.