Campaigning for Tamil Nadu’s election is gaining momentum. While leaders are busy touring and meeting voters up and down the state, the unfolding battle is drawing rapt attention in Delhi and elsewhere.



One major development last week was the resignation from the DMKof Mr. Sarathkumar, popular cinema actor and sitting MP, who belongs to the sizeable Nadar community. His supporters were reportedly demanding and pleading with Mr. Sarathkumar to sever links with DMK, and it was widely expected that he would acquiesce.



However Mr. Kumar has not thus far joined the AIADMK, although rumours are afloat that he would be joining the DMK’s arch-rival soon –the MDMK chief, Mr. Vaiko, declared during an election meeting he would.



The resignation of this popular cine actor would be a setback to DMK front as he used to draw large crowds to his rallies during the last elections. It seems that DMK tried to pacify and mollify Mr. Sarathkumar by sending top party leaders like Stalin (nephew of DMK leader Karunanidhi), Duraimurugan and Arcot Veerasamy to meet him at his residence but they failed to convince actor to stay put.



Last week AIADMK leader, Ms. J. Jayalalitha executed a major political coup by visiting the house of Mr. Vaiko at his native village Kalingappatty. Ms. Jayalalitha is not known for such gestures and has a reputation for treating other leaders with disdain. The visit has thus became major news and has reportedly further enthused the cadres of both the parties, whose shock alliance was forged a few weeks ago..



In the DMK camp, both Mr. Karunanidhi and PMK leader Mr. Ramadoss have started actively campaigning for their candidates and have been vowing that their alliance would return to power by winning more than 180 seats. There was good news despite the Sarathkumar resignation as Mr. Bakiyaraj, a one time popular and effective film actor and Director joined the front. He is likely to tour the entire state.



While no major Tamil Nadu magazines have come out with opinion polls, the popular Tamil publication Kumudam is serialising a report which claims a massive victory for AIADMK front is in the offing. Notably, during the last Loksabha elections Kumudam correctly predicted that DMK front would sweep the elections.



The popular newspaper, The Hindu, is however predicting a close fight with a poll suggesting AIADMK front leading by only 2% over its main rival DMK front. It even predicts no majority for any Front.



According to The Hindu, the coming elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly appear to be unprecedentedly evenly balanced and if current indications are anything to go by, this could be the closest election ever fought in the State.



According to The Hindu’s poll it appears that the ruling AIADMK has been able to recover from the embarrassing rout in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections and establish a 2% lead over the DMK; the AIADMK alliance’s vote share could be anywhere between 44 and 48 percent, while the DMK alliance’s share could be anywhere between 42 and 46 percent.



Although The Hindu is the first to come out with opinion poll results predicting a hung assembly, it can be said with some certainty that Tamil Nadu’s electorate would never opt for a coalition government and analyzing the past results indicate that whatever the confusion generated by pre-election campaigning, the people vote massively against or in favour of a front and there is no reason for this trend to break this time. Seasoned observers are taking a watch and wait approach – albeit with hard-bitten nails.



The most decisive factor is who will lose vote to the BJP and film actor Vijayakant’s party. Both parties have chosen to fight alone. It is generally presumed that Vijayakant has a 5% share of the vote, as does the BJP. If these two parties cut into AIADMK’s votes , which the DMK expects, then this may be enough to help the DMK to come to power. However, other observers feel the voters of the traditional Tamil parties – the AIADMK, DMK and MDMK - are committed supporters and with Mr. Vijayakant posing more as a nationalist politician, he would in all likelihood only draw supporters of Congress (allied with the DML) and undecided voters. As such, it is still ‘advantage AIADMK.’