The forthcoming presidential elections bring a great risk of violence, due to the unexpectedly close contest that is now anticipated between the candidates, said the International Crisis Group in its latest briefing.
“The opposition’s attempt to reopen democratic space also brings with it risks of violence and instability” says Alan Keenan, the organisation’s senior analyst on Sri Lanka.
“The tighter the race, the more violent it threatens to be.”
The report warns that extra-constitutional measures, including the use of the military, under the direct control of the president and his brother, Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa, are possible if Sirisena’s challenge to President Rajapaksa looks likely to be successful.
The ICG in the report highlights the absence of Tamil rights issues and power sharing from the opposition platform and says that it is uncertain whether Tamils will be motivated to vote for the “avowedly Sinhala-Buddhist” candidate, Maithripala Sirisena.
Core questions around national identity, including devolution, accountability and the equal status of Tamils and Muslims will remain contentious whichever candidate wins the election, the report says.