A leaked United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) report warned of the negative effects that assassinations could have, recommending targeted strikes that could exploit leadership divisions and a combined counterinsurgency strategy.

The report, compiled in 2009, analyses the impact of  "high value targeting" (HVT) in conflict scenarios across the world, including in Sri Lanka.

Entitled “Best practises in Counterinsurgency: Making High-Value Targeting Operations an Effective Counterinsurgency tool” the report stated that HVT operations may,

“by eroding the ‘rules of the game’ between the government and insurgents, escalate the level of violence in a conflict, which may or may not be in a government’s interest.”

The report noted that the Sri Lankan government had used “antibunker bombs” to target LTTE leaders  in 2007 and 2008, adding

“Geocoordinate information provided by a former bodyguard of Prabhakaran’s contributed to an accurate Sri Lankan military bombing raid that killed LTTE political spokesman S.P. Tamilchelvan and other LTTE leaders on 2 November 2007, according to a clandestine source with whom a relationship was just beginning.”

It went on to add that the effect of HVT operations against the LTTE were “limited” stating that most LTTE leaders were killed in conventional military operations.

Other potential negative effects that were identified include “increasing insurgent support, causing a government to neglect other aspects of its counterinsurgency strategy, provoking insurgents to alter strategy or organization in ways that favor the insurgents, strengthening an armed group’s popular support with the population, radicalizing an insurgent group’s remaining leaders, and creating a vacuum into which more radical groups can enter.”

However, the report also highlighted ways that HVT operations can be used to the advantage of the government, outlining a range of best practise recommendations including, “capitalizing on leadership divisions” by “exacerbating or exploiting leadership fissures” and combining other elements of counterinsurgency strategy.

See the full report here.