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Scottish First Minister John Swinney has unveiled what he describes as a “renewed” strategy for achieving Scottish independence, setting out a three-pronged approach ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election.
Writing in The National, Swinney reaffirmed that independence remains the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) central objective, as new polling shows significant support across Europe for an independent Scotland re-joining the European Union.
Swinney’s proposed path to independence relies on three pillars: building record-high public support, exerting democratic pressure on Westminster, and securing an “emphatic” SNP victory at the next Holyrood vote. “In 2014, many believed Westminster could still be fixed,” Swinney wrote. “But this time, we must win.”
The first step in Swinney’s strategy focuses on rebuilding support for independence among voters, particularly those who have become disillusioned with the UK government’s trajectory. Citing the 1997 devolution referendum in which 74% of Scots voted for a Scottish Parliament as a benchmark, Swinney said the aim was to build the “highest levels of support possible.”
Second, he aims to generate “public pressure around Scotland’s fundamental national rights,” framing the UK government’s refusal to permit another referendum as a “democratic outrage.” Swinney reiterated that an “agreed democratic referendum” remains the only route to independence that could carry both domestic and international legitimacy, particularly in light of the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling that Holyrood cannot legislate for a vote unilaterally.
The third element of the plan hinges on the SNP securing a commanding win in the 2026 Scottish parliamentary election. “Only when the SNP is doing well is there any prospect of advancing Scotland’s constitutional cause,” he wrote.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already dismissed any prospect of another referendum under his leadership. Last week, he remarked that Swinney had not raised independence as a priority in recent discussions.
It comes as a recent YouGov poll conducted in June found 51% of Scots now support independence, with 49% backing the union. Although within the margin of error, the findings suggest a narrow but potentially durable lead for the Yes campaign.
Swinney has also tied the case for independence to Scotland’s return to the European Union. A new YouGov survey conducted across six European countries found widespread support for an independent Scotland re-joining the EU.
In Germany, 68% of respondents supported Scotland’s membership. The figures were similarly high in Denmark (75%), Spain (65%), France (63%), and Italy (64%). In contrast, only 46% of respondents in the rest of Britain said they would support such a move.
Swinney has long maintained that EU membership represents “Scotland’s best hope.” Earlier this year, he said, “The current uncertain economic and geopolitical environment reinforces the importance of Scotland having the security, stability and opportunity that comes with EU membership.”
“That is why I firmly believe Scotland’s best future lies as an independent country within the EU.”
Scotland voted overwhelmingly (62%) to remain in the EU during the 2016 Brexit referendum. However, as part of the UK, it was forced to leave the bloc. Brexit remains a central grievance among independence supporters, and Swinney’s framing of re-joining the EU as a defining benefit of independence is intended to both mobilise voters and underline the divergence between Scottish and UK-wide political trajectories.