The most decisive phase of Eelam War IV began last week. The Security Forces and Tiger guerrillas fought some of the bitterest battles on Monday and Tuesday. Guns have fallen silent since then. Both sides are reviewing their options.

The worst fighting was in the western flank of the Wanni. Troops that had re-captured vast chunks of territory further north and east of Mannar in the past many months and weeks are now on the doorsteps of guerrilla strongholds. They are meeting with stiff resistance on two important fronts.

One is a column of troops from the Army's Task Force 1 trying to break through fortifications south of Nachchikuda, until recent weeks, home for a major Sea Tiger base. In the light of the Security Forces' advance, the guerrillas had, weeks earlier, dismantled equipment and removed all their logistics supplies to Kilinochchi.

Since the re-capture of Vidattaltivu in July, where a Sea Tiger base existed, the one at Nachchikuda had gained greater significance. It was the transit point for landing military and medical supplies across the Gulf of Mannar from secret bases in Tamil Nadu.

With the loss of the two bases, the guerrillas have been denied the use of any coastal facility for unloading and distributing supplies to their cadres from India. However, unconfirmed reports spoke of small cargo boats unloading unknown contraband in a coastal area south of Devil's Point (located north of Nachchikuda) last month.

Troops have seized control of parts of the guerrilla outer defences at Vannerikulam on the southern outskirts of Nachchikuda.

Their advance beyond Nachchikuda, if successful, would bring Pooneryn within their reach. It is from here that a ferry service operated at one time from Sangupiddy to Karativu. Years ago, that was a popular mode of transport from mainland Sri Lanka to the Jaffna peninsula. A re-capture of the area would mean a military controlled land based route to the Jaffna peninsula all the way from Mannar.

This is why the guerrillas have offered stiff resistance on this front pushing back attempts by the troops to advance at least on two different occasions. The confrontations in this area led to a considerable number of casualties and loss of some military hardware.

Fighting in this terrain in the coming weeks will become more difficult with the full onset of the North-East monsoon in the next few days.

The other significant achievement for the Security Forces is the re-capture of Tunnukai, and more importantly Mallawi. From 1996 to 1998, Mallawi and its environs including Tunnukai was the nerve centre of all military, political and economic activity of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Colombo based diplomats, UN officials and International Non Governmental Organisations (INGOs) then visited Mallawi to meet LTTE leaders.

Kilinochchi was captured by the Security Forces in 1996, soon after wresting control of the Jaffna peninsula in 1995 through a string of operations codenamed Operation Riviresa. The military offensive to take control of Kilinochchi was codenamed Operation Sath Jaya.

The fall of Kilinochchi to guerrilla hands came on November 26, 1998 when they launched Operation Oyatha Alaikal (Unceasing Waves).

Since then, the guerrillas have retained Kilinochchi as their centre of power.Using the town as a major sphere of activity, the LTTE set up headquarters of its own organisations such as "police, courts, prisons, revenue collection, telecommunications" etc.

From Mallavi, the Army's 57 Division has moved to the outer areas. In a bid to stall their advance further the guerrillas offered stiff resistance this week. Thus, besides the troops of Task Force 1, personnel of this Division fought bitter battles with the guerrillas on this sector before it ceased temporarily.

Amy sources say the guerrillas were making defensive preparations including the laying of mines to stall their advance on a number of fronts.

This included the

Independent of the 57 Division's move, troops of Task Force 2 were also advancing in an easterly direction from Moonrumurippu towards the A-9 highway. They had already seized the village of Palamoddai forcing guerrillas to back out from their fortifications there.

Besides the western part of Wanni, the other main theatre of battles is the area north of the Weli Oya sector. In this sector, troops of the Army's 59 Division have made gains. This is by extending the new areas seized on the western flank up to the southern edge of Thannimuruppukulam.

On the east they have moved to the coastal area of Kokkutuduwai located north of the Kokilai lagoon.

However, the troops would have to advance a considerable distance northwards, traversing thick jungle, before they reach the fortifications of the guerrillas that lay beyond Olumadu, Odusuddan, Kumalamunai and Alampil axis.

Advancing troops in this sector have only confronted smaller groups of guerrillas, some of them using hideouts to conduct surveillance on troop movements and on their gun positions.

Here again there were reports this week of guerrillas laying mines and other booby traps to stall troop advance.

It is of interest to note that the flight path used by Tiger guerrilla aircraft to attack the Navy's eastern naval area headquarters in Trincomalee on August 26 was over these re-captured areas. This is both to carry out the bombing raids and to return. However, being a cloudy night visibility over the area was very poor.

This week's battles have clearly defined locations now being held by the Tiger guerrillas. To the north, they still hold the heavily fortified Muhamalai defences. The east is flanked by the Indian Ocean and largely secured both in land and at sea by the Sea Tigers.

This week's battles have shown that on the western fringes troops are just outside the general areas of Mallavi, Velankulam, Murkandi and Akkarayankulam. To the south, the troops are yet to reach the LTTE's heavy fortifications. It is this landmass the guerrillas have to defend with their fighting cadres and resources now.

In any protracted war, the fact that a vast amount of men and material are lost by the warring sides is no secret.

The Army launched the battles in the Mannar sector on July 2, last year. Since then, it re-captured the area in an around the MadhuChurch in April, this year. Thereafter, it seized control of the Vidattaltivu area, where a Sea Tiger base was located, on July 16. Since then they continued their advance to seize control of areas in and around Vannerikulam (south of Nachchikuda), Tunnukai, Mallavi and villages adjoining them.

The military offensive north of the Weli Oya sector began on January 7, this year and led earlier to the re-capture of a vast extent of land, most of them a stretch of "no man's zone." Now, the 59 Division has added more areas earlier dominated by the guerrillas.

Though the guerrillas fought a delaying battle in the past many months avoiding any major close quarter confrontations with a conventionally much more superior Army, they did lose some cadres and military hardware. So did the Security Forces.

The fact that the guerrillas threw in their hard core cadres to delay a troop advance on two flanks in the in the Wanni this week raises some pertinent questions. This is both in the zone south of Nachchikuda and in areas outside Mallavi, Tunnukai and Yogapuram.

Are they now using their hard-core cadres to fight intense close quarter battles to prevent the fall of their remaining strongholds? That naturally raises questions on their role in the past months in the western part of the Wanni. Here, they avoided major confrontations largely fighting artillery and mortar duels. Was it a "delaying war" which they could not sustain for long? Was this the reason why they ceded important locations like the MadhuChurch or Vidattaltivu without last-ditch battles?

That is not to say the guerrillas did not suffer damage, both in terms of men and material. They lost substantially though some of the cadres were said to be new recruits, both young boys and girls. A large number of injured have also been left out of battle. Exacerbating those losses were the vast number of air attacks carried out by the Air Force, some of them on their weapons and fuel storage facilities. It is known that the guerrillas have launched a hurried recruitment campaign in the past weeks and urged civilians to prepare air raid shelters in their homes.

For the Security Forces, the question of deserters has assumed some importance. Whilst the Police have begun arresting them, military courts sitting at a hall in the Army's Volunteer Force Headquarters in Pelawatte, Kotte, have been sentencing them to jail terms. Some have already been moved to the Welikade Prison. Security sources say a few thousand deserters would be arrested to deliver a strong message to their colleagues to return to service.

Besides those killed in action or injured and left out of battle, there was a new development this week over others. Those who are marginally injured in infantry units have been re-inducted to service. This saw the creation of a new Vanni Re-inforcement battalion this week. They are being deployed for non-direct combat related tasks in the Wanni sector.

In this backdrop, both the Security Forces as well as the Tiger guerrillas are now poised for fiercer offensive roles. For the former, it would not only be re-capturing guerrilla strongholds and dealing a blow to their leaders. Besides those in the military, to most Sri Lankans and even some in the Colombo based diplomatic community, this is now a matter of weeks than months. They strongly believe the guerrillas would be defeated. But a trillion dollar question remains.

For the LTTE, defending territory encompassing Muhamalai, the outskirts of Mallawi, Tunnukai, Yogapuram, on the west, Odusuddan, Kumalamunai, Alampil axis on the south and the Indian Ocean in the east is a sine qua non for its survival. Ceding those areas would be anathema to them.

Since the separatist campaign by the guerrillas exacerbated after the ethnic violence of July 1983, successive Governments have fought military campaigns to defeat the guerrillas. This time, they face a new challenge with their strongholds surrounded on three different fronts on land and one at sea.

If the guerrillas have retained their hard-core cadres for fierce battles that are looming, their sea going arm, the Sea Tigers, remains almost intact. So is their primitive air capability demonstrated again last month amidst all sophisticated counter measures.

Thus, in the coming weeks they will have to throw all their lot to ward off defeat. On the other hand, the Security Forces will also have to overcome the final obstacles to achieve their goals. How this will play, only the coming weeks will show.

(Edited)

Iqbal Athas is the Defence columnist of the Sunday Times, and a contributor to Jane’s Defence publications.