The re-election of Donald J. Trump as US president has ignited debate on how his ‘America First’ foreign policy will be put into action, as he gears up to enter the Oval Office once again next year. In contrast to the liberal internationalist vision espoused by President Biden, Trump’s doctrine has been touted as more isolationist and transactional in nature. At a time of waning global American influence, backers of liberal democracies have long expressed their concerns at what this may bring. But his controversial style and unpredictable policy choices, may have both opportunities as well as pitfalls - particularly for those on the island who are seeking accountability and stability.

Trump has been remarkably brash when commenting on foreign policy. He has lambasted NATO’s members for not meeting their spending commitments; claimed that he could bring peace to both Ukraine and the Middle East; threatened to spark a trade war with China; and more recently claimed that Taiwan should pay the US to guarantee its security. Alongside his previous withdrawal from bodies such as the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), where Sri Lanka’s atrocities are routinely discussed, there are concerns that his return to office signals a volatile but inward facing policy - one which sees the rest of the world as adversaries, rather than partners.

The Trump's administration's record, however, shows that this is not entirely the case. There was no immediate abandonment of US global interests in his previous tenure. Trump himself boldly attempted to negotiate nuclear deals with North Korea, for example. In Sri Lanka, it was Trump's State Department that issued sanctions against Sri Lankan Army commander Shavendra Silva in 2020, a figure implicated in egregious war crimes committed during the Mullivaikkal genocide. That move sent ripples across Colombo and the world, as the United States directly targeted military officials responsible for atrocities. Regardless of whether it was a decision from the White House or from the State Department, it showed a willingness to hold Sri Lankan officials accountable that was long overdue. And it paved the way for others such as Canada to undertake similar moves.

The former reality TV star has for years framed himself as a steel nosed negotiator and tough business mogul. In the search for deals in America’s interests, if the president-elect decides to reassert US power, he may well view Sri Lanka as a strategic target for doing so. The island has long been a destabilising player in the region, wrought by armed conflict, political instability and more recently, an economic crisis. Successive administrations sought to play off global powers against each other, looking to China for financial and diplomatic support as it warded off calls for reform. Even under a new self-proclaimed Marxist president, the island remains one of the most militarised places in the world and fraught with ethnic tensions. Until a just peace is found – through accountability for atrocities and the fulfilment of Tamil aspirations – Sri Lanka will continue to remain a place that is, simply put, bad for business.

Under Joe Biden, the US fell woefully short at addressing this. Instead of pushing Colombo on making progress on these issues, Washington seemed to prioritise building military relations whilst soft-pedaling human rights concerns with Sri Lanka. US officials met with accused war criminals, US troops trained Sri Lankan soldiers and US hardware was handed over to a military accused of committing systematic abuses. “The United States and Sri Lanka are doing more together as professional militaries than ever before,” boasted a senior US Admiral earlier this year. Even on the diplomatic stage, years of toothless UN Human Rights Council resolutions had reached a stalemate, with no progress at all on accountability for the genocide. Substantial penalties for human rights abuses have not materialised under Biden's presidency, frustrating many who hoped for more direct action. Donald Trump is certainly more garish with his words, but he could also be more forthright with his actions - something that is desperately needed when it comes to US policy on Sri Lanka.

If the Trump administration does withdraw into American isolationism however, a move he has threatened to do, then it will be left to other powers around the world to shape the future of the island. With Washington’s waning influence, that process is clearly already underway. In the face of US intransigency in the Middle East and inability to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza; Beijing brokered a historic unity agreement between Fatah and Hamas. Elsewhere, despite US protests, the UN-Secretary General and 36 country leaders attended the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, and were welcomed by its host Vladamir Putin. The geopolitical landscape is shifting.

It is in this new reality that the role of Beijing and New Delhi, will continue to be significant for Sri Lanka. Both are looking to expand their footprints on the island, and both will require a conducive climate of transparency, accountability and peace to do so. Eelam Tamils will be crucial partners to ensure any such stability. They cannot be ignored. Other Western countries, such as the United Kingdom and European Union, may well become the de-facto mantle holders of liberal democratic politics. But they will have to assert their presence more forcefully in a changing global climate, particularly if Washington does choose to retreat. With Sri Lanka going to the polls yet again next week, the stakes remain high.