SETTING the parameters based on 13th amendment and ruling out a federal solution, the Colombo – Chennai – New Delhi axis is learnt to be pressurising Tamil political circles to come out with a political formula, as early as possible, to hastily close the file on Tamil nationalism and to hide all skeletons under the cupboard.

The haste in the Indian Establishment is said to be arising from the fear of China’s growing influence in the island resulted from India’s folly of not maintaining balance in the ethnic war. “Grasping geopolitics and aspirations of people, the Tamil political circles need to play the cards with dexterity,” said TamilNet political commentator in Colombo.

What is privately said in the Indian circles about the Eelam War is that they had not expected the 'military defeat' of the LTTE so soon. The LTTE has opted to make a vital point by not surrendering the war and to leave it abstract. Obviously, India was not expecting the peril of China to press its boundaries so soon.

Close to the heel of securing its hold on Sri Lanka through the Eelam War, China is now knocking the doors of the northeast frontier of India.

Indian analysts are not ruling out the possibility of China carrying out a limited military operation in the eastern sector of Arunachal Predesh, one that will deal a short and stunning blow, depriving India of Tawang and leaving it with a bloody nose, writes Indian journalist Sudha Ramachandran from Bangalore.

Arunachal Predesh is a northeast frontier state of India, which China claims as its territory. Tawang in Arunachal is a seat of spiritual importance to Tibetans and hence of political importance to the Chinese.

Sudha Ramachandran cited General J J Singh, governor of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and former chief of army staff, announcing in June that India would be deploying two army divisions of around 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers each along its boundary with China in Arunachal Predesh. The journalist also quoted Indian officials saying that there has been a four-fold increase in Chinese intrusions into India’s territory over the past year, most of them along the border in Arunachal.

“China won’t make any compromises in its border disputes with India,” the Chinese media Global Times was reported commenting on the situation.

“India can’t actually compete with China in a number of areas, like international influence, overall national power and economic scale. India apparently has not yet realized this," the Chinese media has further said.

China is now blocking 2.9 billion Dollar Asian Development Bank loan to India on grounds that India will be spending that money on its northeast frontier, which China claims a ‘disputed’ territory. China’s stand “has left bank officials aghast at the treatment of India, its largest borrower,” says Financial Times.

For years now the Eelam Tamil circles have been repeatedly telling the blunder being made by the Congress Establishment and the Krishna Menon legacy, pointing out that a policy against Eelam Tamil liberation is a policy against India’s national interests.

The Indian media, diplomats and intelligence blogs are wailing through their nose now, about what China hijacked in Sri Lanka, put all blame on China, but still don’t want to admit how their own sin to Tamils caused the misery.

“On both counts – diplomacy and arms supply – China has rendered invaluable help to Sri Lanka in its war effort against the Tamil Tigers,” Financial Times quoted R. Hariharan saying. The retired colonel of Indian intelligence, who was for long regularly writing against Tamil struggle, supporting Colombo, now sees Sri Lanka emerging “a friendly cockpit” for China.

While Naresh Chandra, India’s former ambassador to the US and former cabinet secretary, says China fails to recognise its own power to do good in Asia and its entire thinking is based on the People’s Liberation Army, Arundhati Ghose, India’s former ambassador to the UN has said, China, flexing its muscles, wanted to say ‘We are the big boys here and Asia can only afford one power’, reported Financial Times.

India can do little about what it sees as regional encroachment in newly triumphant Sri Lanka, military-ruled Burma and arch rival Pakistan, and even the former mountain kingdom of Nepal, Financial Times said

Arundhati Ghosh was cited saying, “We are not in a position to take them on militarily, economically and now not even politically,” adding, “The only option we’ve got is diplomatic. At the moment, the US is of no help. ”

Some observers feel whether US will leave India to learn the lesson as it left her in 1962.

Colombo continues to play the China card in making the Indian Establishment to work with it in its structural genocide of Tamils and in hoodwinking a political package. The fear in Tamil circles is that India may do this just to see that it is not totally out of Sri Lanka at this precarious time.

The policy of the West on Sri Lanka is usually not to rule out the prerogative of India. If India comes out with a favourable policy on Eelam Tamils the West will not say no. But India has to boldly come out with it and if not, the West for the sake of its own credibility should convince India of the need of it.

This is where the Tamil political circles and the diaspora have to play their cards with dexterity, says TamilNet political commentator.

“Tamil political circles have to make a clear distinction. While all the understanding and sympathetic sentiments of Eelam Tamils are there for India, its people and its security, the Tamil political circles don’t need to extend those sentiments to the Indian Establishment if it is not deserving and plays further folly in imposing any politics of subjugation, treating Tamils as pawns.

“Tamil politicians have to firmly say no to anything that doesn’t recognise Eelam Tamils as a nation, integrity of their land and their self-determination, and expose the folly of the biased policy makers and some media empires to the people of India, how it goes against the national interests of India.

“The people of Tamil Nadu have a great role in not only enlightening the people of the rest of India but also in giving a jolt to the Establishment in Chennai to make history in the right way.

“As everybody is caring for the diaspora now, any package proposal designed for the ‘defeated colony’ also will come to the diaspora, seeking supporters. Let the diaspora be prepared how to respond to it,” the commentator said.