EDITORIAL

Sri Lanka’s parties are drawing some indelible lines

Whilst the Sinhala press has observed the irrelevancy of the manifesto published by Sri Lanka's ruling People's Alliance, citing the Prime Minister's undisguised contempt for the value of such documents and the government's dismal track record, there are some election pledges that the government of President Chandrika Kumaratunga is deadly serious about. Her unequivocal refusal to lift the ban on the Liberation Tigers and vow to defeat the movement militarily are amongst these. Whilst Colombo's diplomatic corps and the international community are prone to dismiss - with a breath of naļve optimism - such rhetoric as mere electioneering, both communities across the island's bitter ethnic divide quite rightly take these at face value. Premier Ratnasiri Wickremanayake's blunt statements are similarly uncompromising and heartfelt; at least in intent - as for delivery, battlefield conditions and other developments often interfere with the pledges to 'destroy Tamil terrorism.' The confidence that Sri Lanka's hardline Buddhist clergy have in these two leaders underpins the belief that Sinhala-Buddhist ideals (read hegemony over the island) will not be sacrificed to assuage international desire for a negotiated settlement to the island's conflict.

The PA's proscription of the LTTE clearly remains an impediment to the possibility of negotiations. The matter is symbolic - the movement's expansion in recent years has been oblivious to any effect from Colombo's ban - and yet all the more potent for it. Lifting the ban means legitimising an organisation that advocates Tamil rights and nationhood, an anathema to committed Sinhala-Buddhist nationalists though a requisite for seeking reconciliation with the Tamil community. The strength of opposition amongst the former to acknowledging Tamil rights was again demonstrated this week when Wickremanayake called on the Sri Lankan armed forces to help defeat the 'conspiracy' of an interim administration for the Tamil north east - an idea mooted by the main opposition United National Party (UNP) for de-escalating the conflict and paving the way for a negotiated settlement. The UNP has carefully avoided discussing the make of any such interim structure, but the notion itself has provoked outrage amongst the Sinhala supremacists.

However, the contrast between the two Sinhala parties needs to be considered in the light of the recent survey by Social Indicator, whose results published last week suggested that the Sinhalese were more concerned about the economy than the war whilst the reverse was true for the Tamils. It also suggested that an overwhelming number of Sri Lankans were in favour of talks. But this simplistic analysis is readily challenged by the election rhetoric. Whilst the survey suggests that the capitalist UNP with its strategy for ending the war should enjoy buoyant support, the reality is that both Sinhalese and Tamils do not seek peace alone but the fulfilment of their national aspirations with it. Which is why the PA's fanatical refusal to make any concessions to the Tamils forms the central plank of its campaign. Both the PA and the UNP fully understand that the disintegrating economy and the ethnic war are interrelated. However, whilst the UNP appeals to the sound logic of stabilising the former by ending the latter, the PA's call is emotional, patriotically seeking to win the conflict at any cost to the country's economy.

Fundamentally, for Sri Lanka's war to end, Tamil aspirations must be met or crushed. President Kumaratunga and her government cannot bring themselves to undertake the former and hence will persist in the latter, sabotaging and subverting international efforts to secure dialogue as necessary. The notion of making concessions to the Tamils galls the UNP too, but it recognises the Liberation Tigers cannot - for now at least - be defeated militarily and that protracted war will reduce (the economy and) this possibility further. Whilst the Tamil community understand that neither Sinhala party is going to meet their aspirations, the UNP will - at least in the short term - attempt to discuss these and, more importantly, explore ways to cease hostilities. The much needed respite this could bring the people of the north and east compels the alliance of Tamil parties to throw its growing weight behind the UNP. However, the key point, as Tamils and Sinhalese see all too well, is that whilst vote-securing falsehoods are being put about, some genuine colours are being nailed to masts too.

Traditional Practice

Violence is endemic to Sri Lankan democracy

With two weeks of campaigning left ahead of Sri Lanka's Parliamentary polls, the island's peculiar brand of electioneering is well underway: the police have received well over 800 complaints from across the island of politically motivated attacks on candidates and supporters amid press reports of widespread violence and intimidation. It is fuelled by the proliferation of weapons - issued by the government to some of its supporters and those removed from armouries by deserting servicemen. Eight people have been killed and scores wounded.

However, although the culture of violent politics may be endemic, but it has been readily whipped up and exploited by unpopular regimes desperate to retain power. President Chandrika Kumaratunga this week exhorted supporters of her ruling People's Alliance (PA) to murder those who try to kill them. "There is nothing wrong in killing murderers," she declared, no doubt sending a new chill through her political rivals. The worries expressed by the main opposition United National Party (UNP) which is adamant that the Sri Lanka Army - presently commanded by PA loyalist, Lt. Gen. Lionel Balagalle - is training a hit squad to ambush its leader, seem justified.

As we have argued before, the stakes are high this time, for all concerned. Kumaratunga's political future is undoubtedly tied to the outcome. If the UNP displaces the PA, it is expected to bring a new no-confidence motion against her. Many of her Parliamentary allies have this time defected to the opposition. Most crucially, with the exception of a lone Tamil paramilitary group and a politically immature and opportunistic Muslim faction, all minority parties are backing the UNP - and seem to be enjoying a resurgence of support amongst their respective communities as a result. Sri Lanka's abject economic conditions, whilst compounded by the global environment and the aftermath of September 11, is primarily as a result of gross financial mismanagement under Kumaratunga's autocratic governance. The Sinhala nationalist card that the PA is unashamedly playing again is a powerful persuader but may not be enough this time. To guarantee the PA's return, Kumaratunga has to engage in widespread rigging. The intimidation and violence is hence a predictable precursor to malpractices at the polling booths.

The arrival this week of a team of election monitors from the European Union is arguably an irrelevancy. The EU monitors' credibility, as far as the Sri Lankan electorate is concerned, was spectacularly undermined when they enthusiastically rubber stamped the results of last year's Parliamentary elections - described by the opposition as "the most fraudulent ever." A profound misunderstanding of Sri Lanka's political and ethnic dynamics - exemplified by the EU team leader's belief that the island's woes are similar to Northern Ireland's - will no doubt ensure a similar endorsement this time, muttered laments about the lack of electoral reforms not withstanding.

In the meantime, Sri Lanka's heavily politicised and corrupt security forces are - laughably - being expected to maintain law and order and ensure the democratic process is not subverted, even as Sri Lankan state media extensively covers the PA's campaigns and drives home the government's smear campaign against the UNP. Little wonder that one Sri Lankan newspaper wondered this week "Is this country engaged in a massive self-deluding exercise in calling for a free and fair election?"

From a Tamil perspective, the vicious election campaign and the contempt this and previous governments have demonstrated for the views of the island's populace underscores the mockery that Sri Lankan 'democracy' is. Observing the violence and electoral fraud that accompanies every election, we are confident that the democratic process under a Sinhala government will never permit the articulation or resolution of Tamil grievances.