EDITORIAL

Falling Sand

Norway is running out of time as Sri Lanka continues to attack

The deadlock in the Norwegian facilitated process caused by Sri Lanka's insistence that the Liberation Tigers attend any peace talks as marked criminals and not the recognised representatives of the Tamil people, continued this week. Oslo's tireless peace envoy is cooling his heels in his home country. Since the Sri Lankan government "categorically" refused to countenance lifting the ban on the LTTE, the Norwegian initiative has visibly ground to a halt. The LTTE's statement urging Colombo to reconsider the matter initially drew no response. It came last week in Sri Lanka's most ambitious naval and aerial operation, intended to blockade the LTTE-held Vanni region. Also last week, Sri Lanka's President Chandrika Kumaratunge adopted a familiar cry: she vowed to crush - for the good of the country, naturally - the "Vanni hideout of Prabhakaran and his blood-thirsty band of terrorists."

The military option is quite clearly firmly back on Colombo's agenda. The Norwegians are not needed at this juncture, there's a new battle plan to trial. With over a billion dollars worth of financial assistance secured in the past month from the international community, and with the Indian government reportedly intervening to head off a no-confidence challenge from the main opposition United National Party (UNP), Kumaratunge is very much back in the saddle again - albeit a little gingerly. The strategic objective - as once again bluntly stated by the President - remains. But with the Sri Lanka Army still licking its grievous wounds, it's the turn of the Navy and Air Force to prosecute the war.

The LTTE continues to maintain a studied silence with its offer for Colombo to reconsider still on the table. The movement's oft stated distrust of President Kumaratunge continues to be justified by her government's actions this week: waging war while calling for peace. Kumaratunge's statements to the international community are not as relevant to reality as Norway and the international community might - rather conceitedly - think. Both Tamils and Sinhalese know her vows to the southern masses to destroy the Tigers are genuine, while her promises to the international community to seek peace are part of the obligatory charade for securing funding. So in the dizzying reversal and counter reversal of positions that is Kumaratunge's hallmark, she last week called for peace, launched a military operation, called for peace again, refused to remove the ban - the biggest hurdle to talks, called for peace once more and then vowed to destroy the LTTE.

Kumaratunge's hard line is not contrary to the tide of political forces in the south. Her assertion that the Tamils are merely a minority - made each time she refers to us in the context of a political solution - is inline with the Sinhala-Buddhist clergy's ethno-religious fundamentalism. Last week, as the high priests railed against Oslo's peace envoy and ambassador, Kumaratunge maintained a respectful, tacit silence. Even her handpicked Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickremanayake, urged Solheim to throw in the towel.

Norway's position is unenviable. Surmounting the issue of the LTTE's proscription, which is the crux of the present impasse in the peace process, is one problem. But time to tackle this is running out because of another: Sri Lanka's eagerness to wage war. Kumaratunge's military adventures are inevitably going to result in a bloody engagement sooner or later. The last time a state of uneasy equilibrium on the battlefield was disrupted thus, the LTTE was sufficiently incensed to withdraw its unilateral ceasefire. The rout of the Sri Lankan offensive that followed, combined with the LTTE's continuing restraint, provided another stable period for Mr. Solheim to pitch for peace.

The point is one of persistent irritation amongst the Tamils. Norway's initiative remains standing only because Mr. Solheim has been able to persuade the LTTE not to go on the offensive during his peace initiative. He has singularly failed to do the same with President Kumaratunge. In the past nine months, Sri Lanka has repeatedly gathered its strength and lashed out at the Tigers. Failing, it has rested and tried again. Tamil frustrations centre on the international community's refusal to acknowledge the LTTE's concrete actions to further the peace process while rewarding Sri Lanka's statements - despite the clear contrast with Colombo's actions - with massive funding, thereby enabling the prosecution of the war.

Which begs the question what can be done. If Sri Lanka is to be restrained from pursing the military option, then the international community must link its financial assistance to firm steps towards peace. The issue of sovereignty is a laughable notion here considering whose lifeline keeps this developing country's weakened shell stumbling on. And Mr. Solheim's options are fast running out. The LTTE would probably continue to grit its newly grown teeth until Sri Lanka's attacks begin to challenge the organisation's strategic security. At this point the movement would inevitably strike back, triggering a vicious cycle of escalating violence under which the Norwegian initiative would collapse. If the international community now lacks the courage to assert its authority with Colombo, what does it - and Norway - propose to do once this happens?

Cause and Effect

Wars are apparently easier to fund than its victims

Much to the dismay of humanitarian organisations and those they look after the world over, the cash-strapped United Nations' refugee agency, UNHCR, this week announced cutbacks as a result of lower contributions from certain European powers. Perhaps these countries may not be able to sustain their commitments, considering that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), another supranational organisation funded by member states, has recently allocated approximately $10 billion to prevent Turkey from spiralling into a financial crisis and more funds may be lent to assist Argentina in the near future. These are huge figures even for the IMF but it was what was deemed to be necessary to pull a key member of NATO out of a potential economic mess. However, one would have hoped that in the light of recent hardline policies in several European powers with respect to refugees, funds to an organisation such as the UNHCR, whose objective is to alleviate such crises at the source of their occurrences, would not have been cut.

Interestingly, Sri Lanka seems to be able to claim more than its fair share of the international community's coffers at these apparently difficult times. In the past month the IMF and a consortium of countries have offered over $500 million in funds, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) trumped up a further $600 million. Where has this money gone? Over the past year the Sri Lankan Armed Forces have seen massive expansion in its weaponry as the government has gone on a spending spree for all three service arms. The IMF funds were not explicitly destined for this of course, but funds are fungible. Furthermore, the amounts that are being provided challenge conventional economic wisdom. Admittedly it is only a tenth of the recent package put together for Turkey but considering that Turkey's loan raised surprise at its size - so much so that it temporarily protected the country from the battering of capital markets speculators - and that Sri Lanka has a GDP approximately a tenth of Turkey's, Colombo's package should also raise eyebrows.

All in all, the new world order does not seem to provide a kinder climate for refugees. Those that seek to assist them are suffering cutbacks whilst those that intend to wage the wars that increase their not inconsiderable numbers are have little trouble getting access to funding. President Kumaratunge's salute last week to the IMF for rescuing her government should also be seen in the light of her new found readiness to escalate the war. And so the question becomes what message is the international community sending the protagonists in the Sri Lankan conflict? While the Norwegian peace envoy, Erik Solhiem strives to bring about negotiations, the world powers are readily bankrolling the combatant that, as the past few months have amply demonstrated, is most eager to wage war. The international community's approach to the situation in Sri Lanka seems to be a perplexing one: rather than the usual carrot and stick, a new principal of carrot and candy seems to be in application - a policy that will indubitably increase the future need for more money for both weapons and refugees.